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Bonds Matter (Again)

The 10 Year U.S. Treasury Note yield is once again above 4%. It was at that level earlier in 2023 as well, before declining in the spring as the market began to anticipate (prematurely) the end of the Fed’s tightening cycle. In absolute historical terms, 4% is still...

2023 Q2 Recap & Outlook

After 10 consecutive rate hikes and 500 basis points of total tightening, the Fed paused in June, reserving the right to resume raising rates later if necessary. This was expected considering the recent stress in the banking system immediately following Silicon Valley...

2023 Q1 Recap & Outlook

If there’s such a thing as the opposite of the beginning of 2022 for markets, that’s exactly what happened in the first quarter this year. The S&P 500 gained 7.5%, and the NASDAQ jumped 20.8% after a very difficult 2022 for both. Bonds gained modestly last quarter...